In the final weeks of the presidential campaign, Vice President Kamala Harris is contending with erosion within the Democratic coalition that put Barack Obama and Joe Biden in the White House, and growing more dependent on white voters who historically aligned more with Republicans.

Black and Latino voters, two essential pillars of that coalition, have drifted away from Democrats in striking numbers, according to New York Times/Siena College polling.

The defections, if they hold to Election Day, would make Ms. Harris’s path to victory far more difficult, complicating her efforts both in big cities like Philadelphia and Detroit and across Sun Belt battlegrounds such as Georgia and Arizona.

A Harris win would also be reliant on support and high turnout from college-educated white voters and suburbanites, including voters who traditionally leaned Republican until the Trump era.

Advertisement

SKIP ADVERTISEMENT

“She’s doing very well in suburban areas that went blue after Donald Trump came into office,” Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said. “That’s what’s keeping her in the race right now, while she’s losing a point or two because of the less enthusiastic support among urban men.”

Ms. Harris’s predicament is the clearest display yet of the ways former President Donald J. Trump is creating new political alliances that could fundamentally alter the makeup of the two major parties.

Survey Shows Black and Hispanic Voters May Be Moving Away From the Democratic Party

Democratic share of the major-party vote

A line chart showing the Democratic share of the two-party vote in presidential elections, according to estimates for 2012-2020 and the Times/Siena poll in October. Support among Black and Hispanic voters has declined since 2020.

100%

Black

75

Hispanic

50

All

White

25

2012

2016

2020

2024

Times/Siena

Oct. poll

100%

Black

75

Hispanic

50

All

White

25

2012

2016

2020

2024

Times/Siena

Oct. poll

Estimates for 2012-2020 are averages of the following: estimates from studies of validated voters by the Pew Research Center, post-election assessments by Catalist and exit polls by the National Election Pool. Data for 2024 is based on a Times/Siena poll of 3,385 likely voters nationwide from Sept. 29 to Oct. 6, including 589 Black voters and 902 Hispanic voters.

By June Kim and Christine Zhang

Subscribe to The Times to read as many articles as you like.lucky horse

• lucky horse
• final
• Harris
• restore
• challenge